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Share buyback

A company repurchasing its own shares, which shrinks share count and can lift per-share value. We tested buyback signals as a strategy; no after-cost edge survived.

The investment thesis is that managements buy back stock when they believe it is cheap, so announcements carry information. Japan made an interesting lab for this: buybacks surged after the 2023 TSE governance push, giving the signal plenty of recent events.

Announcements are not executions — many programs complete only partially — and by the time a retail investor reads the news, the pop has usually happened. Our event-window tests found the remaining drift too small to cover trading costs.

See it in the researchThe evidenceWhat actually works

Educational definitions only. Not investment advice.